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Counterpoint Macro Index:
Q3 2023

The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.

We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.

We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as

✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?

✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?

✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?

✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?

✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?​

SOURCE: Counterpoint Macro Index – Q3  2023

Published Date: 27th October 2023

The Good

Economic data:

• Continued rebound in the US and Europe. The risk of recession continues to drop.
• Inflation trending down faster than expected in the US and Europe.
• Rate hiking regime ends in Q3 2023. Rate cuts begin to be formulated by central banks in 2024.

Tech Sentiment:

• Tech outlook turned brighter after earnings season.

International Politics:

• High-level meetings between US and China officials signal a willingness to prevent further fallout.

The Bad

US:

• Business sentiment turns negative.
• Partisan politics starts impacting the proper functioning of government.

China:

• Economic data disappoint.
• Souring business and consumer sentiment, with few signs of stimulus measures.

Europe:

• Lacklustre growth prospects and weak consumer sentiment.
• Social tensions spill over to the streets, while far-right parties gain ground.

Regulation:

• US-China tech war continues.

Likely Trajectory

• Continued grind upwards, but the worst is behind us.
• Q3’s 1-year forecast has been trimmed from Q2’s due to reverse in business sentiment.
• Economic data recovery to continue, but global growth prospects is under pressure.

Delayed recovery timeframe as compared to three months ago:

• Lacklustre European economic data.
• Appetite for consumer tech spending rebound remains weak.
• Interest rates to remain high.
• China’s rebound faltering.
• Continued US-China tensions.
• Russia-Ukraine war.

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It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.

 

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